The effect of the war with Iran continues: Mortgage interest rates, financial market volatility, oil and gas prices, and inflation projections are climbing. Stock markets, consumer confidence, gold and Bitcoin are falling. However, the last 15 months have proven that all these indicators can change direction in an instant.
Mortgage interest rates: The average weekly rate hit 6.38% yesterday, while the average daily rate hit 6.64% today.
Stock markets: This chart illustrates appreciation since the beginning of 2025. However, looking just at 2026, the Nasdaq is down 10% and the S&P 500 is down 7% year to date.
The VIX Volatility Index just hit its highest reading since the tariff shock one year ago.
Oil & gas prices: Tremendous intra-day volatility in oil prices continues. Crude oil is up over 50% since the war began.
The price of oil and gas has soared, but prices of other commodities—such as liquefied natural gas, jet fuel, fertilizer, aluminum, plastics, and industrial gases—have also skyrocketed. Many other countries, much more dependent on Mideast oil and natural gas than the U.S. have been tremendously and negatively affected. Various U.S. industrial and agricultural segments are also seeing painful changes in materials costs.
"Higher fuel prices are stoking inflation worries — economists raised US inflation estimates to over 3% this year — and undercutting the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates anytime soon. That has helped push up Treasury yields this week." Bloomberg News, 3/27/26
"Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment. Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%, and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%, while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued." University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, 3/27/26 release
Gold & Bitcoin prices:
For what it's worth, Fannie Mae announced yesterday that it will accept crypto-backed mortgages for the first time.
From John Burns Research, 3/27/26: "Resale market demand [is] softer than expected: The labor market weakened more than anticipated, macro uncertainty spiked, reducing buyer urgency, and household formation slowed as fewer new households formed and foreign immigration declined more than we initially projected. In a market already sitting on elevated resale supply, that softer demand [ 0% sales volume growth year over year in 2026] translated directly into weaker price growth [.6% price appreciation year over year]."
