A broad overview comparing 30-year mortgage interest rates to Bay Area sales volume since 2016. Sales have been gradually increasing since bottoming out in 2023 - as interest rates have generally declined from their 2023 peak.
A broad overview comparing changes in the S&P 500 Index to Bay Area luxury home sales volume, since stock markets began their huge rebound in late 2023.
Comparing appreciation of Bay Area median sized houses (1500-2000 sq.ft.) to that of much larger houses (4000-6000 sq.ft.) over the past 2 years. Over this period, interest rates saw declines from 2023 highs, while stock markets saw spectacular gains - and larger houses appreciated at twice the rate of smaller houses.
The Fed just reduced its benchmark rate - by .25% - for the second time in 2025 on 10/29, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that a December rate cut is not a certainty.
The weekly average interest rate (1st chart below) released yesterday ticked down very slightly. The daily average interest rate (2nd chart) has risen in the last 3 days after hitting its recent low point on 10/28.
Two looks at stock market movements. They hit new highs on 10/29, fell a bit on 10/30, and have been relatively flat so far today.
General consumer confidence remains very low due to significant concerns about prices, inflation and, increasingly, about job security, though there have been indications that more affluent households are bucking this trend to some degree due to substantial increases in household wealth.
